Liberals are frequently (and perhaps rightly) disparaged for their supposed anti-growth policies. The Liberal idea of heavy taxation of the wealthiest Americans theoretically reduces the amount of capital investment in our economy as that money is redistributed down the socioeconomic ladder. Conversely, Conservative economic theory suggests that wealthy people should be allowed to keep more of the money they earn because they will invest more of that money back into the economy, creating more capital and more jobs.
In 2001, George W. Bush followed the traditional Conservative economic ideology by cutting taxes across the board, including the capital gains tax. This was supposed to stimulate the economy; cheaper capital encourages risk-taking, the engine of capitalism. This capital gains tax cut also benefited the federal budget: after the tax cut, capital gains tax revenue increased far more than projected, as more stock holders decided to sell stock and pay the lower rate. Unemployment peaked at 6.3% in 2003, but by 2007 fell to 4.4%. This economy created new jobs, though at a below average rate. The economy avoided recession and continued to grow, albeit slowly.
And then the crisis hit. The flipside of Conservative economics is rearing its ugly head. That “beneficial” risk-taking is bringing our largest financial institutions to their knees. With low capital gains taxes, investors are quick to sell and get out of the market, reducing available capital when it is most needed. Unemployment is rising, and we are probably going into recession. The weakness of Bush’s tax policy has been exposed.
We see now the macro-effects capital gains tax manipulation. Lower capital gains taxes make the market more agile. Investors are more willing to sell stock, and move their money into a more profitable venture. On the investor level, this is a good thing. On the macro level, it makes the market more volatile, more susceptible to large swings (‘Down’ is the current mode). As the capital gains tax decreases, the disincentive to sell stock decreases (incentive to sell increases), so large down swings should be expected. As more people sell, there is less capital for job creation and economic growth.
A higher capital gains tax would encourage people to hold onto their stocks, perhaps temporarily hurting some on the investor level, but providing more macro stability for the economy. This turns out to be win-win on both the micro and macro levels, as a buy-and-hold investment strategy has been proven to be more profitable than active trading over a period of time.
The Conservative tax scheme, like any government policy, has unexpected consequences. We are experiencing these consequences right now, and it would be remiss of us to ignore the lessons offered by the current financial crisis. We should encourage investors to hold onto stocks by raising the capital gains tax. This will encourage more job creation and economic growth by keeping more capital in the market. Is it totally fair to stock holders? No. Is it better for the economy as a whole? Yes.